StageZine's 2011 Tony predictions:
Our picks for Broadway's best
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By David NouNou
Dare I share my opinions again after my disastrous predictions last year? I predicted wisely in the technical awards. However, I flubbed in a few of the major acting awards. Who would have thought that the Tony committee would vote a Hollywood slate instead of the more worthy seasoned performances of Broadway veterans?
I guess the committee must have thought the award show would get higher ratings if they awarded Scarlett Johansson, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Denzel Washington over the likes of Rosemary Harris, Montego Glover and Liev Schreiber, or Alfred Molina. I felt really bad for Mr. Molina, who was nominated for best actor in Red. Red was nominated for seven awards and won six. The fact that Mr. Molina was the heart and soul of the show and was the lone loser, it seemed like a bad prank pulled at Mr. Molina's expense; it was his third loss. This year, the committee went in the extreme other direction. With the exception of Al Pacino, Vanessa Redgrave, and Frances McDormand, they avoided Hollywood royalty and former Oscar winners like the plague. The likes of Daniel Radcliffe, Robin Williams, Ben Stiller, Kathleen Turner, James Earl Jones, Estelle Parsons, Kiefer Sutherland, Jim Belushi, all gave performances worthy of nominations, but were left out in the cold.
My main gripe with the committee this year is the fact that The Scottsboro Boys was awarded 12 nominations and will probably lose all. A musical that closed last December, and failed miserably to find a Broadway audience, got that many nominations (some deserved and others not); some of those nominations could just as easily have gone to other shows. Poor Priscilla, Queen of the Desert: the Musical got only two nominations when it definitely deserved more. Couldn't they have thrown a few extra nominations to Priscilla, perhaps (musical, sound or set design) where it would have made a slight difference in business for this joyous musical adaptation of the classic Aussie film, and none whatsoever for Scottsboro Boys? Like any award show, we have to accept the good with the unfortunately ludicrous.
Best Musical: A No-brainer here, The Book of Mormon.
Best Book of a Musical: Trey Parker, Robert Lopez, and Matt Stone, The Book of Mormon.
Best Original Score (music or lyrics written for the theater): A pattern is developing here: Trey Parker, Robert Lopez, and Matt Stone, The Book of Mormon.
Best Revival of a Musical: Anything Goes.
Best Play: Two-play horse race. The American intimate entry Good People vs. the British epic War Horse and, "whinnying" by a nose, War Horse.
Best Revival of a Play: As much as I liked The Merchant of Venice, I have to give it to the season's last-minute entry, The Normal Heart. It is the best play of the 2010/2011 season and the must-see event of the year.
Now begins the hard task of trying to choose a winner in the acting categories or more accurately put who the Tony voters pick as winners. It is not easy. If one has seen all the nominees, credit must be given to all. I am sure every nominee has a fan base; however, we will try to predict the winners?
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play : Five nominees, four contenders,and any of the four is deserving of the award. Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf**ker with the Hat (riveting); Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart (brilliant); Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice (galvanizingly fascinating); and Mark Rylance, Jerusalem (forceful). Brian Bedford (The Importance of Being Earnest): Mr. Bedford should have never been in this category as far more worthy performances should have had this slot. He should have been in Supporting Actor, in which he could have easily won. Would love to witness an upset here and see either Mr. Mantello or Mr. Pacino win. However, Mark Rylance will emerge victorious. Earlier in the season, he gave another winning performance in La Bete.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play: Two wonderful performances here. For a while the clear front runner seemed to be Frances McDormand for Good People until another last-minute entry, the delectable Nina Arianda in Born Yesterday. She has totally reinvented the role of Billie Dawn and made it her own. There are times when last minute entries end up winning a Tony. However, I feel that Ms. Arianda has lost momentum due to the public's lack of interest in the show, due to the popularity of Good People and her great performance, Frances McDormand will emerge victorious.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical: Tough choice here; there is no clear front runner. Had Daniel Radcliffe been nominated for How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying, I would have picked him; remember last year's axiom? However, I have narrowed the field to previous Tony winner Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can; and newcomers Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon; they all have wonderful, show-stopping moments. In truth, Mr. Butz is more deserving, because he is the only worthwhile thing in this otherwise listless musical. Mr. Rannells and Mr. Gad may split the vote. However, Tony committee voters tend to vote for a whole slate. Remember when The Producers won everything? I think it even won "stagehand of the year." Since Book of Mormon is the only genuine hit, Josh Gad has the momentum.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical: In what might be the weakest category of the year, the Tony committee did not deem fit to put a fifth nominee in this category. Since they only had six viable candidates, and did not want to hurt anyone's feelings and leave the sixth candidate out, they decided to narrow the category to four nominees instead of the usual five as the rest of the acting categories, thus hurting the feeling of two possible nominees, instead of one. In fairness to the committee, both actresses were in two of the worst musicals of the New Millennium. Both were in atrocious musicals. Both have closed already; however for one of the actresses, there was a happy ending: she got a marriage proposal on closing day. As for Beth Leavel for Baby It's You, and Donna Murphy for The People in the Picture, their performances are overshadowed by their musicals' countless flaws. Both actresses got kudos for their valiant efforts in trying to give life to two of the most critically eviscerated musicals of this or any other year. This leaves us with newcomer Patina Miller for Sister Act and Broadway sweetheart Sutton Foster for Anything Goes. And the Tony goes to (drum roll, please): Sutton Foster.
Of the four supporting acting categories, Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play is the most difficult to choose. Five nominees all giving wonderful performances and deserve being mentioned. Joanna Lumley, La Bete (closed); Judith Light, Lombardi (closed;) Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat (electrifying); Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves (magnificent); Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart (astounding). I have to admit that, in my review, I had Ms. Falco winning this award if she was placed in this category. I then saw Ms. Barkin a few days later and was blown away by her performance. Of all the categories that I would love to see a tie, it would be this one, for both ladies are deserving, but if I would have to choose one, it would have to be Ellen Barkin.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play: Had Brian Bedford been placed in this category, he could have easily won. However, of the five actors nominated, one stands far and above the rest. John Benjamin Hickey for The Normal Heart. Here is a wonderful actor giving a great performance and long overdue for recognition.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical: A veteran (Victoria Clark, Sister Act) and a newcomer (Nikki M. James, Book of Mormon) duke it out here. The rest are fillers. Clear-cut winner: Nikki M. James.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical: Here is a repeat, a veteran (John Larroquette, How to Succeed In Business) having a great time on stage; and a newcomer (Rory O'Malley, Book of Mormon) giving us a great time. Both are duking it out here. The rest are fillers. Not so clear-cut winner: Rex O'Malley.
Best Direction of a Play: Three viable candidates. Daniel Sullivan for The Merchant of Venice (brilliantly reinvented Shakespeare to be more accessible to modern audiences); Joel Grey and George C. Wolfe for The Normal Heart (transformed this play into a heart-pounding theater piece); Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris for War Horse (ambitious and memorable undertaking). My own personal favorite choice is Normal Heart; however, the award will go to War Horse.
Best Direction of a Musical: Can anything really beat out Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker for The Book of Mormon?
Best Choreography: Should and will go to Kathleen Marshall for Anything Goes; her synchronized dance/tap numbers were flawless.
In the technical awards, just pick The Book of Mormon for musicals and War Horse for drama; it will be a safe bet that you guessed correctly.
However, when you get to the Best Costume Design in a Musical category, go for Tim Chappel and Lizzie Gardiner (who won Academy Awards for the costumes in the original Australian film) for Priscilla, Queen of the Desert: The Musical. This will be the only category that can derail the unstoppable Book of Mormon. But then again??
Thus ends the 2010/2011 season, rich, abundant, and overflowing in memorable shows and performances. Do watch the Tony Awards on Sunday June 12, 2011 on CBS from 8pm to 11pm Eastern for the winners and let us know if we helped you pick the winners at your "Tony office pool."
David NouNou is Managing Editor and Co-Publisher of StageZine.com.
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Published May 31, 2011
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| TONY VOTERS CONVERTED BY 'MORMON': 'The Book of Mormon' will sweep the Tonys. Does anyone have any doubt? Photo: Joan Marcus |
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| U.K. DRAMA WILL WIN TONY 'WAR': 'Whinnying' Best Play by a nose will be Lincoln Center's production of Brit hit 'War Horse' at the Vivian Beaumont. Photo: Paul Kolnik |
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| ALL 'HEART': The Broadway revival of 'The Normal Heart' is not just a powerful chronicle of the early days of AIDS; it is simply great theater, and deserves a Tony for Best Revival of a Drama. Photo: Joan Marcus |
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More photos of Tony nominees that StageZine.com thinks will win (right).
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| 'O, JERUSALEM!': 'Jerusalem' might be over some Americans' heads, but Mark Rylance gives one of the most memorable performances of the year. Photo: Simon Annand |
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| 'GOOD' PERFORMANCE IS TONY-WORTHY: Frances McDormand (center) could win a Tony for her dynamic portrayal of an unemployed Boston woman in 'Good People.' Photo: Joan Marcus |
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| BROADWAY'S SWEETHEART SUTTON FOSTER: Sutton Foster (center) is a sublime triple threat in 'Anything Goes,' making her our pick for Best Leading Actress in a Musical. Photo: Joan Marcus |
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| CRIKEY, GIVE THIS SHOW AT LEAST ONE TONY: 'Priscilla, Queen of the Desert, the Musical' deserved many more nominations than it received, but it definitely should win for Best Costumes. Photo: Joan Marcus |
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